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A new analysis suggests that reductions in U.S. military spending could result in significant decreases in energy consumption by the Department of Defense, leading to reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Ryan Thombs of Penn State University, U.S., and colleagues present these findings in PLOS Climate.

Of all the world's institutions, the U.S. military produces the most greenhouse gas emissions. This occurs through such activities as maintaining bases, continual preparations and training, research and development, and transporting people, supplies, and weapons worldwide. According to military leaders, anthropogenic climate change threatens geopolitical stability and national security. Meanwhile, prior research suggests possible links between various nations' military spending and their national-level emissions.

However, few studies have analyzed associations between military spending and direct measurements of military energy consumption. To help fill that gap, Thombs and colleagues conducted a statistical analysis of publicly available data on U.S. military expenditures and U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) energy consumption from 1975 to 2022.

The analysis showed that reductions in U.S. military spending are associated with decreased energy consumption. Decreased spending appears to have a bigger effect on saving energy than increased spending does on increasing energy consumption, with these effects due primarily to reductions in energy consumption from facilities, vehicles and equipment, and—in particular—jet fuel. The researchers note that this asymmetry suggests that modest U.S. military spending cuts could meaningfully reduce fossil-fuel consumption and contribute to climate-change mitigation.

The researchers also developed forecasts of the possible effects of different spending decisions on energy consumption from 2023 to 2032, exploring various sizes of spending increases or cuts. These forecasts suggest that by 2032, sustained cuts could yield annual energy savings comparable to the annual energy usage of the U.S. state of Delaware or the nation of Slovenia.

Given the potential implications for climate change and sustainability, the researchers note the need for further research to elucidate what mechanisms might underlie the observed asymmetrical effects of military spending on energy consumption.

The authors summarize, "We show that sustained cuts to U.S. military expenditures could result in annual energy savings on par with what the nation of Slovenia or the U.S. state of Delaware consumes annually by 2032."